Oleksandr Khara: Surprises In The US Elections Are Possible
27- 4.11.2024, 15:58
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What do the candidates prepare on the decisive day?
The US presidential election will be held tomorrow. This will be the 60th presidential election in the history of the country, in which the 47th president will be elected. After incumbent President Joe Biden, who originally planned to run for a second term, withdrew from the race, the candidates from the two leading parties were Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party and the 45th US President Donald Trump from the Republican Party.
What do the candidates prepare on the decisive day? Journalists of Charter97.org spoke about this with Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, expert of the Center for Defence Strategies Oleksandr Khara:
— The most important thing is that they go very close to each other. There are no special surprises to expect on the last day. It is clear that there are a sufficient number of states that have long been determined.
The most important intrigue is how the seven key states will vote — “swing states” that change their minds. And there is a difference of no more than 2% between candidates, within the framework of a statistical error. For example, Trump leads 2.1% in Arizona, but this does not guarantee that he will win there. And in the state of Pennsylvania, which is extremely important for this election, there is a difference of 0.1%.
It can be noted that Kamala Harris is trying to reach out to young people and male voters. Because women, given the rather aggressive statements of Trump and his entourage regarding the right to abortion and so on, are more inclined to be closer to Kamala Harris. Young people are mostly supporters of Kamala Harris, but they are more, let's say, frigid, if you can call it that, and do not really want to take part in the elections. She tries to reach out to this group that can make a difference.
Trump, accordingly, is trying to seize the initiative in this field. If they do not make mistakes, some very scandalous statements, then something will not change dramatically. Therefore, most likely, we expect results around a draw, and then judicial mechanisms will be involved, and so on. That is, not as it was in 2020, there were also lawsuits, but more about the invalidation of a certain number of votes.
There is a fairly tough confrontation, and so far it is quite difficult to bet on any of these candidates. It should be said that the issue is not only in the presidential elections, but also in the elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Republicans are more likely to have a majority there. However, there is still time, and, accordingly, there may be surprises.
— Can any of the candidates have some hidden potential that is not displayed in the polls?
— The trouble with public opinion polls is that they do not show the election results very accurately over the past 10 years. Secondly, now, given Trump's rather aggressive rhetoric, some independent organizations that conduct public opinion polls are trying to give conservative estimates to two candidates so as not to anger Trump, not to get some kind of wave of anger, and so on. Therefore, there may be a certain stock here, of course.
Naturally, both Republicans and Democrats are trying in some cases to overestimate and show the highest possible results for their candidate in order to make a certain framework and spur voters who are hesitant to choose a winner.
In Iowa, very unexpectedly, Kamala Harris broke away from Donald Trump quite well, but this is the initial stage. At the moment, about 60 million out of 430 voted and, in principle, Kamala Harris showed a fairly good result. But this does not mean that she can win on this trend, because, firstly, there is face-to-face voting, but there is by mail.
Naturally, mail takes some time. Therefore, the stock is possible here not because it was not taken into account, but because the organizations that conduct public opinion polls present their results and keep conservative estimates.
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