It Won't Be Long

13.12.2024, 16:00
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Belarusians are watching Lukashenka's health and hold out their hopes.

The rapid fall of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad is a prelude to what will happen in Russia and Belarus. This opinion was expressed by Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website, in an interview with renowned journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov. Here are excerpts from the conversation:

— We exaggerate the power of dictatorships. The regimes of Putin and Lukashenka will fall in the same way as the regime in Syria. Let me remind you that recently Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that it is possible to defeat Russia. We see that the Russian Federation is weak and exhausted by the war in Ukraine. It is unable to support dictatorships around the world as it has done so far. This is good news for all of us — Belarusians, Ukrainians. It became obvious to me that Ukraine could win. If so far we have all argued on what terms a truce is possible, now it has become obvious that it is necessary to support the Ukrainians and finish off the Russian regime.

Natallia Radzina draws attention to Lukashenka's nervous reaction to the events in Syria:

— Lukashenka's hysteria is caused by an understanding of how precarious his situation is. No one will protect the Belarusian dictator. Putin did not protect Assad, Iran did not help the Syrian dictator. That's true for Lukashenka, whose allies include Russia and Iran, no one will rescue him.

The Belarusian dictator understands better than ours how weak Russia is, how its economic and human resources are depleted, that there are not enough people at the front, so the North Koreans were thrown into the war. Lukashenka tried on the fate of Assad and remembered all his dead cronies-dictators. He shedded tears over Hussein, Milosevic, Gaddafi, and remembered Assad's father Hafez, who was actively supported by the USSR.

Lukashenka asks Putin to deploy the Oreshnik missiles, the whole world laughs at it, because he is wildly afraid of his own people, who hate him. The dictator is afraid of a possible offensive from Ukraine, he is afraid that he will be forced to send the Belarusian army to war. The dictator understands that it will end in disaster for him.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website gives another argument why Belarusians will not fight with Ukrainians. It is based on the common history of the two peoples:

— We were together in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, then the lands of Ukraine came under the Polish Crown, but we were in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, both countries suffered from the Russian Empire, were occupied by it, and fought together against it in common uprisings. They lived together in the "prison of the peoples" of the Soviet Union. Common culture, similar languages. Belarusians love Ukrainians very much, Kyiv is one of the best cities in the world for me (after Minsk, of course).

Natallia Radzina believes that the main task for the West today is to finish off the Putin regime, and not just to express words of solidarity with the struggling peoples:

— Russia has suffered a huge geopolitical defeat. The Kremlin is losing naval bases in Syria, which, as we know, were “jump” bases and helped to conduct special operations in Africa. Now Russia will lose its influence on this continent. Moscow continues to spend huge resources on the war in Ukraine, which leads to a weakening of influence in the post-Soviet space. Including Belarus and Georgia.

Today, the West's task is to help Putin fall. This is more important than solidarity with struggling peoples (although it is also important). It is more important now to finish off Putin's hydra, which releases its tentacles and tries to restrain the development of neighboring countries. This can be done if you help Ukraine financially, supplying weapons, expanding the ability to strike long-range missiles at targets in the depths of Russia. I agree with the American historian Yuri Felshtinsky that if they are allowed to hit Moscow, the war will end within two weeks. Not in 24 hours, as Trump promised us, and has not already fulfilled it, but very quickly.

And, of course, it is necessary to deplete Russia economically. Let's lower oil prices to $40 per barrel. Can Trump keep this campaign promise? This will be a huge support for us. We are already tired of expressions of solidarity and support, of promises to "join the EU in ten or twenty years". The task of the United States and Europe today is to destroy the potential of the Russian Empire.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website notes that not only ordinary Belarusians, but also the ruler's entourage, are looking at Lukashenka's deteriorating health:

— Lukashenka is perceived today as a departing person and an outdated dictator, who has little idea of his situation. He's an old scarecrow who's lost his mind. We know that Lukashenka has severe health problems, and his entourage see it during meetings. I sometimes like to look at the faces of these officials who do not express anything. They just want to "get through the day and hold out through the night". Naturally, in the event of changes (and they certainly will happen), they will instantly change sides and abandon the dictatorship and its legacy. And, I hope, together with us, the democratic opposition, they will build a good European state.

Belarusians watch Lukashenka's health and hold out hope. There is a joke, "Lukashenka comes to a shaman and says: 'Tell me my immediate future.' "I see a lot of happy people, they celebrate a great holiday and everyone waves their hands," Shaman replies. "Do I wave back?" Lukashenka asks. “No, the coffin is closed,” the shaman replies.

Doctors watching from the outside say that the condition is serious, he does not have long to live. A lot of excess weight and the use of hormonal drugs (possibly psychotropic), clearly a problem with diabetes mellitus, more than one joint has been replaced and a gout. Shortness of breath, Lukashenka cannot walk normally. They say that he can not withstand a long sitting at meetings, travel around the country is extremely difficult for him. Lukashenka has no strength and does only short trips.

Natallia Radzina notes that a establishment coup is possible in the country, which will lead to the creation of a transitional government:

— If there is a coup, the people will join and support it. I think that this is a "window of opportunity" for the coming to power of the real opposition, and not the "repainted Lukashists". We discussed one of these scenarios. Change in Belarus is inevitable if Putin's regime weakens. An establishment coup is possible. And here it is important to come to the creation of a transitional government, which will include representatives of the opposition. First of all, political prisoners who will leave prisons, representatives of emigration and part of the nomenklatura that did not participate in the crimes of the Lukashenko regime. The new government may call for peacekeeping troops to enter the country under the auspices of the UN to stabilize the situation in case of attempts to oppose democratic changes by some Russian forces or gangs (many law enforcement agencies in Belarus like GUBOPiK, OMON, SOF, etc. have become such gangs).

The Belarusian journalist notes that changes in our country can occur at any time. She draws parallels with Syria:

— In 2021, Bashar al-Assad held "elections" and scored 95%. Lukashenka, I think, will draw the same number for himself on January 26, 2025. However, events are developing so rapidly that I also began to doubt what would happen before the "elections". And judging by Lukashenka's hysteria, we can wait for important events to happen at any moment.

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