Roman Svitan: Russia Will Be Squeezed Out Of Belarus

The Russian Federation is following the footsteps of the USSR.

The war in Ukraine will end in three years, Russia will be squeezed out of Belarus and other spheres of influence, and the Russian Federation itself will repeat the path of the USSR. Retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Roman Svitan shared his forecast with the Charter97.org website:

— Firstly, military actions will not end until the Russian Federation disintegrates, just as the USSR did in its time. Certain historical parallels are noticeable. The USSR consisted of a dozen and a half states, into which it disintegrated. Russia consists of 21 republics. The USSR fought with Afghanistan for 10 years, the Russian Federation has been fighting with Ukraine since 2014.

The economic preconditions for the collapse of the USSR were laid precisely by the sanctions mechanisms for the war in Afghanistan. Sanctions have been imposed on Russia for the war in Ukraine. This is one geopolitical field. Some mechanisms of the collapse of Russia are already visible. Putin will try to keep the country from collapsing through external wars.

Secondly, the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people will never stop military actions aimed at restoring sovereignty and territorial integrity. More than a million Ukrainians are fighting directly now, up to 10 million indirectly. Another 10 million are displaced. This is all a serious force.

Every serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine takes an oath to the people of Ukraine. Not to the government or the president, but to the people, that he will preserve sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore, the Ukrainian army and people will fight until territorial integrity is restored. So what 2025 are we talking about? To fight for three years until the collapse of the Russian Federation.

— What will the next year be like for Russia?

— Next year, the Ukrainian army will conduct a couple of counter-offensive operations. Moreover, one of them will be carried out with the help of long-range weapons. This will mainly concern the Crimea.

Missiles will be used to destroy about two hundred Russian military facilities in the Crimea. There are 150 stationary and about 50 mobile military facilities. They will simply be dismantled by aviation and missiles. The Russians will not be able to defend themselves. That is, the military force in the Crimea will be destroyed, air superiority will be gained. The operation will last about six months, I think this will be the task of the summer military campaign of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

A ground operation will also be carried out. Here it will depend on the number of forces and means for it. If there is a sufficient amount of equipment and personnel, then at least a ground operation to liberate the Crimea will be launched. If there is not enough, then an operation to control Russian territory can be carried out: Bryansk, Belgorod, expansion of Kursk. To create a so-called buffer zone.

I will note that, roughly speaking, we will receive 100 billion worth of “hardware” from our partners in 2025. If everything is in sufficient quantity, then, I emphasize, next year we can clear the Crimea not only with missiles and aircraft, but also with a ground operation. The most minimal option: cover the Crimea with missiles, air strikes, approach it and begin its liberation or seal the Russians in the Crimea. That is, reach the isthmuses. This is one of the tasks for next year. Next is the liberation of the Donbas. This is possible only after the complete liberation of the Crimea. The Crimea can be liberated in one year, but the Donbas will take several years. Therefore, we will have to fight for another three years.

After reaching the 1991 borders (this will be around 2027-2028), everything will depend on how quickly the Russian Federation will fall apart and how intensively they will conduct military operations on the border line.

There is a possibility that after the agreements between Trump and Putin (or with someone after Putin) there will be a certain agreement that so-called peacekeeping troops will be introduced between Ukraine and Russia under the auspices of the UN in order to separate the opposing sides. Moreover, by that time, the Russian leadership will be seriously undermined by the “Russia-fall” (I call it that), which began this year in Syria. Then they will be squeezed out of Transnistria, Belarus, Georgia, Africa, and later from South America. The “Russia-fall” is possible, the Russian army will not be able to help anyone from all these locations. It is tied up in the fighting in Ukraine. All this together allows me to make such a forecast.

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