Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenka Might Disappear Any Day

31.12.2024, 20:11
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The liberation of Belarus will make all of Europe safer.

Why should Belarusians ignore the upcoming “election”? How will a free Belarus become a guarantor of Europe's security? What is really happening in Belarusian prisons?

Leader of the European Belarus civil campaign Andrei Sannikov told the English-language Meduza about this and more. The Charter97.org website publishes the interview:

— Belarus is set to hold a presidential vote in January 2025. Why do you think the Lukashenko regime decided to schedule the vote earlier than expected?

— There is no “vote,” there is no “election,” and my advice is to ignore it because after 2020, the democratic world shouldn’t even use the word “election” as regards this regime. I think Lukashenko has some hopes connected with the incoming U.S. administration and that’s why he purposefully scheduled this show immediately after the inauguration of the new president. But really, I would say that to even call it an “election” in inverted commas is not only wrong but a crime against political prisoners in Belarus.

The situation is horrible and they’ve somehow invented a very cynical mechanism of trying to show some positive signs to the West because sanctions do work. (I’m not happy with their volume and intensity, but they are in place.) They’ve released several political prisoners, without saying their names, but they are arresting many more. So the number [of political prisoners in Belarus] isn’t decreasing, it’s increasing. And the [real] number isn’t what human rights defenders report, it’s several thousand. I always stress that in Belarus, political prisoners are not being kept in prisons, they’re being killed in prisons. We have so many cases and there’s no reaction from the [countries of the] world that can react and should have reacted before.

— Some analysts argue that Lukashenko is trying to renew his mandate for appearances’ sake, because he’s eyeing a role in potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Do you think there’s any connection there?

— First of all, I would say that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future would mean the death of Ukraine and Ukrainian independence. So I don’t expect anything like this to happen. I see the pressure is on Ukraine, which is stupid, because this will never stop Putin’s war. Putin will go further and further into Europe, and he’s already gaining more of a basis in Europe with right-wing parties, with the Orbáns, Ficos, and others in European politics.

Lukashenko has no role to play at all because he’s completely dependent on the Kremlin. Even if he tries to create the image that he’s maneuvering, he’s not maneuvering — he’s obeying orders. He is being kept in a very strict framework, because the only financial support he gets is from the Kremlin. And all this effort with the fake theater show in January is to try to activate useful idiots in the West who would once again try to put forward this very stupid and very dangerous idea that Lukashenko can be isolated from Putin. They are Siamese twins, although they hate each other.

— Lukashenko has announced seven group pardons of political prisoners since July. Is there any information about who has actually been released?

— I can tell you only that he’s not releasing the most prominent names. Moreover, [there are political prisoners like my friend] Palina Sharenda-Panasiuk, who is a mother of two underage children and was tried for the fourth time [in October] so her [prison] term would be extended.

There are also people who are dying [in prison]. I know several cases of people who are deathly ill. Andrei Voinich needs a liver transplant and isn’t given medical assistance. The drugs he needs on a regular basis are extremely expensive and almost impossible to get in Belarus. And there are many cases like this. The people who are well known are not being released. Maybe there will be one or two on the eve of January 26.

— In November, Maria Kalesnikava’s father was able to visit her in prison after a year and a half of no contact. Do you know of any other political prisoners who were suddenly allowed contact with their families?

— Mikalai Autukhovich, who had been kept in the punishment cell for a long time, was allowed a phone call with his relatives — and he warned that he might be murdered.

There might be other such cases but they’re not [being made] public. People are in very difficult situations. Even relatives and people who give very small amounts of money to support political prisoners are being arrested. I expect some names will be in the news in January, but I caution not to believe the stories that will be connected with them.

— I’ve seen the pardons referred to as part of an “imaginary thaw” because the Belarusian authorities are simultaneously carrying out a pre-election crackdown. What has this involved and who is being targeted?

— I think the scale of [repressions] is unheard of in Belarus, even in these very dark years, because they’re going after everybody, [including] people who aren’t involved in politics but weren’t that loyal to Lukashenko publicly at some moment. They’re arresting people who were against this regime ten years ago or even more; they’re sentencing people who are already in jail to additional terms. The level of fear of Lukashenko among Belarusians is beyond even a paranoiac level, it’s absolutely inhuman.

I think he’s simply trying to sterilize Belarus completely, which is impossible to do, of course. But I think that’s the goal of every dictator. Of course, they never reach their ends and Lukashenko won’t reach his ends [either]. But he may inflict more and more damage on Belarusians in the short term. [This is happening] because the world does not react; because the sanctions that were introduced are not enough.

— Do you think that Lukashenko staging this sham election and putting Belarus back in the headlines could create some momentum on the international stage for a new round or better targeted sanctions?

— I hope so. I hope that the word “election” as regards Belarus will disappear completely under Lukashenko and there will finally be real sanctions against the regime, because that’s the only way to save people’s lives.

When all the political prisoners are released, I’ll be the first to say lift all the sanctions. Go ahead. Forget about my attitude towards Lukashenko. If all of them are released, lift the sanctions, do whatever you want. But something has to be done because this petty dictator is using the situation with the Ukraine war and everybody’s attention being elsewhere. Everybody is preoccupied not with providing solutions but expressing more and more fears, which is not helpful.

— You said if the political prisoners were released, you’d be the first to say lift the sanctions. Is that because you’re assuming they would only be released if Lukashenko was no longer in power?

— No, I’m saying that I want something to be done to save people’s lives. That’s the priority. Second, the real [opposition] leaders are in prison today, not on the outside. Those who were the origins of our revolution in 2020 are all in prison: Tsikhanouski, Statkevich, Seviarynets, Sharenda-Panasiuk, and all the others. That’s why I think that if all of them are released, it will be a different situation in Belarus.

And I’m not saying this could only be done if Lukashenko is [no longer] in power. Lukashenko is seriously ill, it’s visible. He might disappear one day and [then] what are we facing? We’re facing an immediate reaction from the Kremlin because they wouldn’t want to lose Belarus and its strategic territory. The only [way] Russia will continue its war is if Belarus stays in its alliance. If we get rid of the Lukashenko regime and get this territory first in neutral status and then part of Europe, there will be no war. Russia won’t be able to do it because, if you look at a map, you’ll clearly see this “Belarusian balcony” hanging over Europe, and since Ukraine is clearly looking towards NATO and the European Union, it’s the only part of Europe that’s threatening Europe per se. I think that from all points of view — geopolitical, moral, democratic-value wise — Belarus has to be paid more attention. It has to become free and independent, and it’s doable.

— Lithuania has filed a formal request for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate alleged crimes against humanity committed by Lukashenko’s regime. I’d like to hear your thoughts on this request — what do you think or hope it can achieve?

— There are steps that are probably necessary to take, but there will be no results in the foreseeable future, unfortunately. All the mechanisms should be used, but it must not be regarded as something effective that could prevent further crimes today.

Even in the case of the United Nations Human Rights Committee, I got a decision [saying] that my rights were violated, and so what? It’s good for the future, that there’s an objective opinion from a very authoritative international body that I wasn’t a criminal. It’s good for the purpose of stating what I always say: I never broke the law. But by this I mean international, universal law — not the law of dictators. So, that’s why [the ICC inquiry] is a positive step, let’s say, but not effective.

— Are there any efforts to organize ahead of January 26? Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has urged people inside Belarus to vote “against all,” for example.

— That is very counterproductive. It’s a very negative and dangerous appeal, because she’s helping Lukashenko to create a turnout. It doesn’t matter [how people vote.] First of all, nobody will count anything; there’s no election and no vote count. But this will give people the false idea that they can do something during this show, which is wrong and is definitely helping Lukashenko. I’m very strongly against it and very critical of this. For the rest of Lukashenko’s days — and I hope they’re numbered already — forget the word “election” in Belarus, on any level.

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Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenka Might Disappear Any Day

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