‘Lukashenka Stepped On Anti-Personnel Mine’

The protest spring will unravel.

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine reported that the Russians are urgently leaving Damascus. Syrian rebels have already taken Aleppo and are fighting for Hama.

How will the defeats of the Bashar al-Assad regime affect Putin? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with Maksym Pleshko, PhD in Philosophy and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:

— Of course, this is a huge reputational blow to Putin. In Ukraine, they rejoice when the allies of their enemy lose. The events in Syria also hit Lukashenka. Not long ago, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry expressed support for the Assad regime. The losing dictators unite, support each other, but lose.

Russia's defeat undermines the export of its military power. When the same “Wagnerites” entered Africa, they gave guarantees, signed obligations, took money and resources, and now, as it happened in Mali, they are being defeated, and they say that this is the “Ukrainian GUR”. This is a slap in the face at the level of all world intelligence agencies and military structures. Now Syria. Putin showed that he is a “great geopolitical player”, invested resources, helped to take Aleppo, and now the city was lost in literally two days, which is why Russian propagandists suffer. Russia's image as an exporter of military force has suffered greatly. When Assad needed military support, he flew to Putin and began to ask for help. But what can the Kremlin give? It cannot provide ground troops, because it itself is attracting North Koreans to the war to plug holes. Putin can provide aviation, but in limited quantities. In Ukraine, this is only welcomed, because even if several aircraft or air defense systems are transferred, they will not be used on Ukrainian territory. For us, it's only better.

That's why Syria is hitting Putin and Lukashenka politically, reducing the export of Russian military power and the ability to participate in wars.

— Putin has shown that Assad is not a very significant figure for him. Is Lukashenka a higher priority?

— Of course, Lukashenka is a higher priority for Putin than Assad. First of all, because of geography. Belarus has great geopolitical significance for Russia. It needs a “Belarusian balcony” that wedges into the West. If Ukraine, quoting Dugin, is “Russia's underbelly”, then Belarus is right under Moscow's throat.

From a political point of view, too, the so-called “union state”, Belarus is also important in economic interests. If Assad is a distant interest, an image story, then Lukashenka is a specific proxy that influences you.

It must be said that there are two approaches: Ukraine's victory, the collapse and disorganization of Russia will lead to changes in Belarus. But there is another one — changes in Belarus will become a catalyst for the beginning of the collapse of Russia. Therefore, Belarus is an important element in this Russian puzzle, very important for Putin.

Obviously, Putin needs to maintain the status quo in Belarus — political, military and economic control over the country. Also, the destruction of culture, language, erasure of identity. This is what is already happening today. Unlike the Soviet philosophy, where there were national republics, culture, language, theaters, today's Russian policy is different. The Kremlin says that the Ukrainian and Belarusian states do not exist, Belarusians and Ukrainians must become Russians.

Therefore, Putin needs the status quo in Belarus, and Lukashenka fully ensures it.

— Doesn't the thought creep into Lukashenka's head that Putin can screw him over, like Assad?

— This is an interesting observation. We must understand that Lukashenka is far from a naive fool. Even though he is driven into insanity and nonsense, he has been in power for so long that he has developed a good instinct for self-preservation. Lukashenka saw what happened to Armenia, what is happening to Assad. He understands that Putin will screw him. We remember 2020 very well, the Kremlin wanted to replace him, there were certain games there. It cannot be said that there is “great love” between the two dictators. It is just that today Putin ensures that Lukashenka retains power. Lukashenka can be compared to a person who stepped on an anti-personnel mine with one foot. After all, we understand perfectly well that the protest in 2020 showed that Belarusians are a European people, a civilized society. All this energy is driven underground, the spring is compressed, Lukashenka is standing on it. Today everything is supposedly stable, but if he moves, the mine will explode, his legs will be torn off. Sorry for such an analogy, but for Ukraine, where there is a war, it is close. If Lukashenka is standing on a mine, then Putin is the one who leaned on his shoulders and pressed down so that the mine does not explode, because it will catch him too.

I think this analogy describes the nature of their relationship.

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