Lukashenka Should Fear Yabatkas

They will sweep him away in a matter of moments.

“While you were out shopping, the jihadists occupied Aleppo” — this is the phrase my son greeted me with the other day. And indeed, now it is somehow scary even to go out to get some potatoes — what if, while you are standing in line at the checkout, another dictatorship falls? And especially the very one the collapse of which we are waiting for? But it will fall. And exactly like that — not as a result of someone's systematic work and strategic dialogues, but just like that. Because someone's refrigerator breaks down or their leg itches.

It took the Abkhazian opposition just a few days in November to dismiss President Bzhania. The reason for the protests was an investment agreement with Russia. And, mind you, there simply was no more puppet regime for Russia than the Abkhazian one. And suddenly — one-two-they took it, pulled it, blocked the bridges and sent him into retirement. And no Putin stood up for his vassal. He doesn’t care now, he has his own problems.

The Syrian jihadists, of course, did not follow Bzhania’s resignation, but almost immediately advanced against government troops and took 20 cities and villages in ten hours. Now Assad has lost both Aleppo and Hama, and, judging by the rate of advance, he will soon lose Homs. And if Homs is captured, this will cut off the Mediterranean coast from government troops. And including Tartus, the Russian naval base, from which the fleet is already being withdrawn just in case. And at the same time, Bashar al-Assad, previously generously sponsored by Russia, was not even honored with a protocol photo this time: he was received in the Kremlin, but the press service refused to publish a protocol photo, as is usually done after meetings of heads of state. It's not practical, you know.

Georgian protests, the fall of the Abkhaz ruler, the offensive in Syria, the attempted coup in South Korea — all in a couple of weeks. Such a compression of historical events into a single unit of time has not happened for a long time. And watching what is happening is not just interesting, but important. We are once again shown how quickly the situation can change in any country, how a dictator becomes a loser, how regimes that exist solely at Putin's expense begin to collapse with a roar and fireworks. We see Lukashenka naively preparing for another term, but, like transfer pictures on a refrigerator, bright and convincing scenes of the future collapse appear around him. Instant, unexpected, final.

At the marches not only in 2020, but also at all previous ones, there were always participants with posters saying “Lukashenka, remember Ceaușescu!” The direction of thought is correct, but not entirely. Everyone remembers that Ceaușescu was shot by Romanians tired of the dictatorship, but this parallel with Belarus is not drawn at all: you and I know that we cannot execute without trial and investigation, we have European values, the rule of law and other pearls of the liberal glossary. But the thing is that the fall of Nicolae Ceaușescu's regime did not occur as a result of mass anti-communist protests, but after he decided to hold a rally of Romanian yabatkas in Bucharest in defiance of local protests in Timisoara (there, by the way, people did not come out for freedom of speech and fair elections, but against the eviction of the Hungarian pastor Laszlo Tekes from his home, and the slogans were separatist, with only a small share of anti-communist ones). A hundred thousand people were driven from factories to the rally in support of Ceaușescu. And at some point — I think Ceaușescu never managed to understand exactly when — the rehearsed cries of support gave way to chants of “down with them!” And then, three days later, Ceausescu was shot along with his wife Elena.

So, Lukashenka cannot understand and accept a simple thing: he should be afraid of the Yabatkas, not of those who have been jailed in the thousands for years for likes, reposts and photos with flags. We do not hide our faces, names and beliefs. But they are a completely different story. They have not gone through torture, prisons, punishment cells, deprivation of visits and letters. They do not understand that it is better to run away from a riot policeman. They do not feel fear. They do not see the enemy.

These people are used to living comfortably, without anything standing in their way, interfering, or pressing. They are sincerely grateful for a comfortable life without unnecessary thoughts. They are, in essence, fearless. And it will take just one such plasterer, driven to the rally on the order, torn away from the festive table on the occasion of his mother-in-law's anniversary, to make Lukashenka flee, but in vain. That plasterer will loudly say something obscene in the crowd, appropriate to the occasion, and those standing nearby will suddenly remember that they also had their own plans for this day — to fix a motorcycle, have a drink with friends, send the wife off to the dacha and visit a neighbour on the occasion, watch football, or buy a new inflatable boat. And the blazing fuse will crawl to the podium faster than the guards will understand what is happening. Then Lukashenka will probably recall the year 2020 with longing — the beautiful flags, cheerful posters and sincere smiles. But it will be too late. And Putin, as recent events show, will no longer help.

But Ceausescu also probably hoped that at the last moment he would be saved by brave anti-communists who wanted to observe the law. But they had too much work. Or too little care for some dictator — let the crowd sort it out, they will succeed.

Iryna Khalip, specially for Charter97.org

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