Political scientist: The Reason For Lukashenka's Hysteria Is Clear

What is behind the escalation of the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border?

A number of Lukashenka's military officials began to talk about the alleged concentration of Ukrainian military on the border with Belarus. Russian propagandists even talk about an "approved plan of attack." Peskov also took the floor, he said that "the concentration of Ukrainian troops on the border with Belarus is also a problem for the Russian Federation."

Why are these voices being heard right now? Charter97.org spoke to Ukrainian political scientist and writer Volodymyr Tsybulko about this:

— Russia wants to draw Lukashenka into hostilities in any way, and he plays along with the Kremlin at the level of rhetoric. As you know, he moved additional troops to the south of the country, but there is no change in the concentration of Ukrainian troops in this area. Therefore, all this hysteria is connected with the fears of Lukashenka and Putin.

Putin wants to stretch the front as much as possible so that Ukrainian troops actively move along the front line, trying to close the hole where Russia can attack. Active actions of Ukrainian troops in the territories adjacent to the Sumy region stopped the attack from the Sumy region — four convoys of Russian troops were defeated on the territory of the Bryansk region.

Putin's troops recently tried to repeat the attack on Kharkiv, but, as you know, these troops were defeated near Kharkiv. However, not the entire territory of Kharkiv region has yet been liberated, so, most likely, it was just an attempt to stretch the Ukrainian troops, for which the Belarusian army was also involved.

— Putin's fear in this situation is understandable, but what about Lukashenka's fear?

— His power will end the day after the end of Putin's power. First, Lukashenka is afraid that his troops will take a direct part in the war. Putin has been pressuring him for a long time and demands that Lukashenka send troops. And he understands that he will not be able to attack Ukraine from the territory of Belarus on his own, because he will immediately run into the destruction of these troops. But he can't hoax Putin for a long time.

If Putin puts more pressure on Belarus to provide its troops for military operations against Ukraine, then Lukashenka will have to concede in this regard, because his power is directly dependent on the Kremlin.

— The head of the Belarusian General Staff, Muraveika, threatens those countries that "will encroach on the independence of Belarus" with a nuclear strike. Why does China allow the Belarusian regime to treat with a nuclear baton?

— Muraveika can tear out his "cores" and throw them towards the United States. As for China, we see that it is no longer actively promoting its version of the peace plan for Ukraine, the whole case is paused. It is important for Beijing that this authoritarian belt, which it was building, still remains, and its participants weaken so much that without China they could not exist at all. While China is watching how Russia is weakening, and Belarus too, it is satisfied with everything.

— Over the weekend, Foreign Affairs wrote that the Kremlin seriously believes that a new campaign against Kyiv can be successful. Is such a scenario possible? How will Ukraine respond?

— A new march on Kyiv is possible if they take a village in the Moscow region, rename this village "Kyiv" and attack it with their troops. Then it will be a successful campaign, and in general, we can say that the Russian troops are showing off and making Lukashenka move in anticipation of a huge, so to speak, "stargazer", which will arrive to them in the near future.

They feel and understand this, because the nature of the conduct of hostilities by Ukrainian troops at the front (Kharkiv, Luhansk and partly in Zaporizhzhia) indicates that Russia may face a shortage of weapons in the coming month.

This will also be affected by the situation with dominance in the sky, and we are waiting for aviation in the coming weeks. Ukrainian aviation has already begun to work more actively, even though the F-16 is not yet available. Good ammunition has appeared, which gives a tangible excess of our capabilities over the Russian ones. When the F-16s appear, this will mean that the only trump card of the Russian Federation in the form of gliding bombs — these are FABs and KABs — will be beaten. They will only have ballistic missiles.

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