Not Just Health Concerns: Why Lukashenka Didn't Go To China?

The political scientist voiced two reasons.

In early 2025, on January 3, Lukashenka announced his visit to China. The trip was to take place before the so-called elections — on January 26. The dictator's visit to Xi Jinping did not take place.

The media voiced two possible versions. The first is the deterioration of Lukashenka's health, the second is China itself decided that it does not want to meet with Lukashenka yet.

Which one is closer to the truth? Charter97.org talked about this with Belarusian political scientist Anatol Kotau:

— I doubt that China has decided that they do not need Lukashenka. It would be difficult to make such loud, public statements if there were no preliminary agreements. The reason should be sought in a slightly different sphere.

Firstly, it is still Lukashenka's health, which does not favor such serious long-distance flights that burden the body. Furthermore, fitting the visit into the 'election' calendar would be challenging and only feasible with perfect health.

After all, China is at least 3-4 days, taking into account flights and some minimum time spent there. You need at least 1.5-2 business days, otherwise it's not a visit, but disrespect for the hosts.

These four days, taking into account Lukashenka's health factor, turned out to be impossible to find. Also, again, the visit itself should have had several goals. I would pay attention to two main ones. The first is the search for public support, but I will say right away that it is unlikely that Comrade Xi would openly wish Lukashenka victory in the 'elections'. Even the Kremlin did not take such a step, limiting itself to a phone call and a rather strange wish for 'success', nothing more.

The second goal that Lukashenka would like to get from China is money. Without receiving another loan for something or a big gift, but relations with China in the financial sphere are somewhat overshadowed by the fact that Lukashenka is not a reliable partner in terms of payments.

The most ambitious project — the construction of a private potash plant under the guarantees of the Belarusian government and a Chinese loan — has stalled. I understand that no one is in a hurry to return the money to the Chinese. Belarus does not really want to pay off the debts of Misha's friend [Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriev — Ed.].

In such an atmosphere, it would be most uncomfortable for Lukashenka to go to ask for more money. Here, health, as well as the inability to solve at least one of the two tasks in the Chinese direction. This is the reason why the announced event never took place.

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