The War Will End Once Belarus Is Liberated

24.01.2025, 14:17
24,756

The West and Ukraine must develop a clear strategy regarding our country.

A discussion titled "The War's Expansion: Belarus as a Launchpad for Attacks on NATO States" took place. The discussion was organized by the International Center for Countering Russian Aggression in collaboration with the "For the Decolonization and Dismantling of the Russian Empire" the expert group from the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine’s inter-factional MPs' association.

The experts discussed military threats from the territory of Belarus and possible ways to counter them. Ukrinform acted as an information partner.

The discussion featured Ukrainian MP Oleh Dunda, Charter97.org Editor-in-Chief Natallia Radzina, former deputy commander of the Kalinouski Regiment Vadzim Kabanchuk, co-founder of the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Oleh Magheletskyi, head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications Maksym Pleshko, Ambassador-at-Large for Belarus at Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ihor Kyzym, and other experts.

Ukrainian MP Oleh Dunda believes that Russia may attack European countries this year:

— Why do our partners think that the attack will take place only in 2028? Because they believe that aggression requires a large number of tanks and other weapons. Most of our Western partners still do not understand that the war has changed — both tactically and strategically. Today, war means drones. Russia produces UAVs. Therefore, the Baltic region is under threat.

Vilnius is 20 kilometers from the Belarusian border, Daugavpils is 30 kilometers, Narva is one kilometer from the Russian Federation. With the use of modern drones, these territories can be occupied quite easily and quickly.

If we look at the map, we understand that Belarus is a military springboard for Moscow's aggression. If the targets are the Baltic states, it won't be possible to do without Belarus.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, believes that a strategy for the liberation of Belarus should appear in Ukraine because Russian troops on the territory of our country are the main threat to Kyiv:

— I agree with the statement that Belarus today is a springboard for attacking Ukraine and Western countries. This became evident long before February 24, 2022, when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched, including from Belarusian territory. Belarus has long been regarded as a hub for exerting control over Eastern and Central Europe. Russia's military presence enables it to maintain dominant influence over Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Poland.

During the Cold War, the largest tank formation was stationed in Belarus, with the goal of securing a breakthrough to the English Channel. The strategic significance of the Smolensk Gate, I believe, is well understood by those engaged in this discussion.

Currently, Russia's top-tier air defence systems are stationed in Belarus, with the Russian tracking station in Hantsevichy serving as a key element of the missile attack early warning system. Additionally, Belarus hosts a communication center for the Russian Navy in Vileika, which is essential for controlling strategic submarines. Also here is an extensive network of military airfields — more than twenty. At any moment, hundreds of Russian aircraft may appear at dozens of Belarusian airfields.

It is clear that the military alliance between Belarus and Russia has a strong anti-Ukrainian and anti-NATO focus, as evidenced by the military exercises held on Belarusian soil—such as "West" and "Shield"—since 1999. These exercises focused on planning a breakthrough to Kaliningrad and simulating a nuclear strike on Vilnius and Warsaw. The Treaty on Security Assurances signed in December 2024 brings new threats from Belarus, as it opens the possibility of military bases being placed within our country.

An interesting report was published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which was called "Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus". The authors of the report suggest that Russia plans to deploy ground forces in Belarus, including new divisions, the formation of which was announced by the Russian Ministry of Defence in 2023. So the Zapad-2025 exercise is a real threat, they are scheduled for the fall, but threats may arise even earlier, when Russian troops are deployed.

Natallia Radzina believes that only a free and democratic Belarus can be a guarantor for the security of Ukraine:

— What is important in this situation? Develop a strategy regarding Belarus. After all, it never existed on the part of Ukraine. Looking back to 2014, when the Russian offensive in Crimea and Donbas began, it became clear that we had to consider the threat from Belarusian territory. I and many Belarusian opposition figures went to Ukraine and sounded the alarm about the risk of an attack from Belarus, stressing that the Lukashenka regime was fully under Russia's influence. Our warnings were ignored by the National Security and Defence Council, the Verkhovna Rada, and the Ministry of Defence. We know that there was economic cooperation between the two countries until 2022. In 2020, the necessary support was not given to the democratic forces of Belarus. The sanctions that were imposed did not have much impact. The fact that they stopped calling Lukashenka "president" and began to call him "self-proclaimed president" was not successful. It was necessary to impose tough economic sanctions. But, as we know, the trade in petroleum products has reached record levels. About 70% of the Ukrainian fuel market was occupied by oil products from Belarus.

Therefore, it is important to avoid this mistake, to have a strategy towards our country and to understand that only a free and democratic Belarus can be a guarantor for the security for Ukraine. Regardless of the current truce negotiations, Belarus must not be handed over to Russia, as it will always serve as a base for attacks on Ukraine and NATO member states. Putin, of course, may subsequently fight against NATO countries. However, it seems to me that the greatest threat from the Lukashenka regime is directed against Ukraine. That is why Kyiv must develop a clear strategy on how to liberate Belarus. Ukraine should work with Western countries, explaining how strategically important the territory of Belarus is for the entire region.

Natallia Radzina called on Ukraine to lobby for tougher sanctions against the Belarusian regime:

— First, the imposed sanctions are being widely bypassed. I believe secondary sanctions should be applied to countries that violate the measures, and restrictions should be placed not only on companies but also on products, ensuring they are halted immediately at the borders of EU countries.

An effective measure could be implementing a trade embargo on Belarus, halting both trade and the transit of goods through the country. This would be an effective measure not only for securing the release of Belarusian political prisoners, but it could also pressure Putin to withdraw troops from Belarusian territory if they are deployed.

Former deputy commander of the Kalinouski regiment Vadzim Kabanchuk expressed the opinion that Belarus would be liberated by military means:

— In Ukraine, a project of Belarusian volunteers who are fighting as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is already being implemented, the most famous unit is the Kalinouski Regiment. The situation with Belarusian emigration is such that hundreds of thousands of Belarusians, expelled from their country by the Lukashenka regime to European nations, have expressed their readiness to defend these countries if there is a threat of military expansion. The largest diaspora is in Poland, with Lithuania probably in second place.

We understand that the de-occupation of Belarus is primarily the concern of the Belarusians themselves. But for the power scenario, we need tools that, with the help of Ukraine, our partners, should appear in our country at a certain time. Perhaps, one of such mechanisms will be the Ukrainian Legion in Poland. Maybe it is worth creating a unit of Belarusian volunteers there.

Co-founder of the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Oleh Magheletsky also calls on Ukraine to play an active role in the liberation of Belarus:

— Lukashenka has no autonomy, no matter how hard he tries to portray it. It was quite intriguing to compare the Kadyrov regime in Chechnya with the Lukashenka regime in Belarus. Kadyrov, although Ichkeria is occupied by Russia, has more rights and subjectivity than Lukashenka in Belarus.

It is important to recognize that Ukraine should serve as a key advocate, particularly among Western partners, in highlighting the distinction between the Belarusian nation— a strategic partner of Ukraine— and the Lukashenka regime. It was not just an occupation, it was an Anschluss. If in 2014 we talked about the Russian war against Ukraine, then since 2022 it has been the Russian-Belarusian war. After all, the Russian Federation uses not only humanitarian and paramilitary components, but also the military, with the exception of personnel. We must understand this clearly.

As Natallia Radzina said, Ukraine should act as a promoter of a full economic embargo of Belarus, the closure of all double export channels. Why doesn't Moscow occupy Belarus? Because it is needed for such cases. Belarus needs to have a voice in the UN, as well as to import and export sanctions products.

Many countries today look specifically at Ukraine when it comes to attitudes towards dictators. If today we do not interact with the occupation regime of Lukashenka, support volunteer forces, this will become an example for Poland, Lithuania and other countries.

Maksym Pleshko, Candidate of Philosophy and Head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications, urged Ukraine to "embrace the spirit of the new era":

— I believe that we, Ukraine, the Belarusian democratic forces of Belarus, should be more courageous. We are entering a new era. What is Trump doing today? He throws statements in the direction of Canada, Greenland, Mexico, in order to then negotiate in the interests of the United States.

We step in during sharp statements, trends, and ideas. I think that the Ukrainian leadership also needs to adopt the spirit of this new era. Among these statements, there should be a place for strengthening the Belarusian volunteer movement. But do not expect only from Ukraine that it will do something. There should also be steps from the democratic forces of Belarus, appeals to Belarusians. It is necessary to encourage Belarusians abroad to go to military clubs, train, work with the governments of Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine.

Ukrainian journalist Anton Pidlutskyi, co-founder of KyivVlada, believes that Europe needs to completely abandon goods from Belarus, as well as seriously think about the de-occupation of our country:

— The question arises as to why Ukraine is acting passively. The example of MP Yevhen Shevchenko, who ran between Kyiv and Minsk after the outbreak of the war, is an assessment of our unclear position regarding occupied Belarus and the Lukashenka puppet regime. Diplomatic relations with Belarus should have been severed long ago, as was done with Russia. It is necessary to eradicate all the agents of the Lukashenka regime in Ukraine. As for sanctions, Belarus should be as sanctioned as Russia.

I see only one way out of this situation — the formation of Belarusian volunteer associations in Ukraine, Poland, and other European countries. It is necessary to de-occupy Belarus, occupied by the Russian Federation. It's time to act, dear friends.

PATREON Support the website

Write your comment 35

The War Will End Once Belarus Is Liberated

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts

Interview

Opinion