Natallia Radzina: Lukashenka Regime Could Collapse In 12 Days

The dictator still lacks support within the country.

What will the recent "elections" in Belarus be remembered for? What's behind the failure of Tsikhanouskaia and Latushka's strategy? Why do Trump's actions inspire optimism? Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, told about this and more in an interview with the YouTube channel of the famous journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov:

— How did it happen that after the incredible electoral protests, we watched it with enthusiasm and excitement in 2020, Belarus has come to such a sad picture? Who is responsible? Lukashenka? Did the forces opposing him make a mistake, miscalculate or mishandle? Is this at least partly the fault of the opposition?

— The picture is not so sad. In fact, these so-called "elections" gave me a sense of hope — as the Belarusian people largely ignored them. Truly, this was a significant event. Polling stations on election day were empty not only in Minsk, but in all cities of Belarus. This was an expression of protest. In today's conditions in Belarus, it is a real heroism not to go to the polling station. Imagine if people in the Soviet Union ignored this obligation and did not come to the polling stations decorated with red bunting. But they did it in Belarus.

— You, probably, because of your age, have not yet participated in the elections in the Soviet Union, and I remember perfectly well. Try not to go vote – at half-past eight, there's a knock on your door, and standing there are the staff from the nearest polling station, sometimes in an aggressive mood, but more often very friendly, saying: "Dear, please, we'll lose our bonuses if you don't vote. Because for every person who doesn't vote, they’ll skin us alive three times over. Please go and vote. We know it. We are not willing to vote too in these elections. Have pity on us."

I roughly describe a scene back in 1985, when there was already stagnation. The last days, not even weeks, but the last days of Konstantin Chernenko's tenure as General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU and Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. The country seems to be at a complete impasse. We did not yet know about the state of health of Konstantin Ustinovich, we were not informed, many were in anticipation that this agony may last another year or two. Hell knows how long. Thank God, everything changed there, Konstantin Ustinovich migrated to another world, Gorbachev appeared, perestroika began. And then there was a feeling like: "Go to hell, all of you." My wife and I then made a firm decision never to participate in any elections again. But these poor young people came to talk about what heavenly punishments would fall on them if we didn't vote. But we changed and went to vote, but we might not go.

— That's it! And the Belarusians didn't go! And this is a feat, because compared to the Soviet post-Stalin period, the situation in Belarus today is much more difficult. The regime is much tougher and the level of repression is higher. I would like to remind you that since 2020, Belarus has not stopped arresting dissidents for a single day. There are thousands of political prisoners behind bars. People were forced to go to the polling stations, but they still did not go. I cite one statistic, again, in favor of the fact that the Belarusians made a feat when refusing to go to the polling stations. In the Soviet Union, there were 200 policemen for every 100,000 people. How many police officers do you think there are in Belarus per 100,000 people?

— I'm at a loss. Don't bother, tell us.

— 1480 according to data until 2020. Seven times more.

— Seven times more than in the Soviet Union?

— This is according to data until 2020, and after 2020, I think that the difference is already, perhaps, 10 times, and people still did not go. That's why I admire Belarusians.

— That's impressive. This is a police state, really, with so many law enforcement officers for every 100,000 people.

— Right. So we do not yet consider here intelligence officers, and there are a lot of them too. I think this statistic does not include internal troops. Therefore, in fact, what happened on January 26 gives hope, shows that the absolute majority of Belarusians are against this government. There was no turnout in these "elections". For this reason, the 86% that Lukashenka fabricated for himself is out of the question.

As much as I remember, Hosni Mubarak fabricated for himself on the eve of the fall of his regime. And Bashar al-Assad, as we remember, fabricated 95%, and his regime fell in 12 days. The numbers are irrelevant. What matters is that the Belarusians ignored these "elections", despite all the threats, despite all the pressure. That's it.

— Could the Belarusian opposition or, let's say, I do not know how you feel about the terminology here, the opposition is a privilege of a democratic society, rather we need to talk about the forces of anti-Lukashenka resistance, I would prefer such a term. But I do not want to enter into a terminological dispute with you. Let's put it this way, could the opposition have offered an alternative way to oppose Lukashenka during the election campaign?

— These so-called "elections" showed the complete failure of the strategy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia's office. They invited Belarusians to come to the polling stations and vote against everyone, and Belarusians ignored these calls and boycotted the electoral farce. I have a lot of questions as to why they chose this strategy. It was immediately stated by many activists of the Belarusian opposition that this is an absolutely wrong strategy and work for the authorities, because it is ensuring the turnout at polling stations. It is quite clear that Lukashenka would show this picture and tell that Belarusians are in a hurry to vote for him beloved. But Lukashenka did not get that picture, the Belarusians ignored both the calls of the dictator and the calls of Tsikhanouskaia and Latushka.

— Was there a "none of the above" option in the "elections"?

— Yes, there was a column "none of the above" option. But we understand perfectly well that it makes no sense to participate in the electoral farce. Voting figures were ordered by the Central Election Commission to all polling stations even before the vote count. No one counted the votes, no one looked at the ballots. The voter turnout could have been ensured if Belarusians had listened to the calls of the pseudo-leaders, there's no other way to describe them. Because neither Tsikhanouskaia nor Latushka are real leaders of the opposition. The failure of their strategy only confirms that they have no influence on Belarusians within the country today.

— Excuse me, I am not an expert, as, probably, many of my viewers are not experts in Belarusian domestic policy. Therefore, please, if possible, explain at least in a few words, but why did this happen? Why Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia, for whom, apparently, the overwhelming majority of Belarusian citizens voted in the 2020 elections, as you said, turned out to be bankrupt.

— Yes, this is absolutely true, she turned out to be bankrupt. Firstly, in 2020, Belarusians did not vote for Tsikhanouskaia, they voted against Lukashenka. No real presidential candidates were registered in these elections. Many of them emigrated. Many, like Mikalai Statkevich and Siarhei Tsikhanouski, were arrested on the eve of the presidential election.

Viktar Babaryka was not registered at all and was thrown in jail before the registration as the presidential candidate. Therefore, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia appeared, it would seem, by chance, at that time everyone thought that this was a good strategy to register Siarhei Tsikhanouski's wife as a presidential candidate. But as a result, it turned out that she was a "weak woman", as she repeatedly stated and mentioned in interviews. The strategy that she and the people who surrounded her turned out to be a complete failure.

First, Tsikhanouskaia herself did not call on Belarusians to take to the streets and defend their voices. There were no direct calls from her. Secondly, instead of holding a press conference in Minsk after August 9 and declaring herself the President of Belarus, for some reason she went to the Central Election Commission, where she was detained, had a very tough conversation, as we understand, a video was recorded with her, where she called on Belarusians to disperse and admitted her defeat, and then the KGB officers took her by car to Lithuania, where her children were at that time.

From there, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia did everything to simply destroy the protests in Belarus. She was immediately surrounded by very dubious personalities, a lot of them were representatives of the Lukashenka regime, who suddenly began to resign and go abroad. Pavel Latushka is a former Minister of Culture, a former ambassador to Poland and France, who worked for the Lukashenka regime for 23 years. Next to her was also a former lieutenant colonel of the GUBOPiK (this is a punitive body, such as the Belarusian Gestapo), Aliaksandr Azarau. Next to her was Valery Sakhashchyk, ex-commander of the Brest Air Assault Brigade. Former employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Valery Kovaleuski. Together with these and other “beautiful” people, a strategy was developed to take people to the streets on Sundays, if you remember.

I personally called her to declare a general strike, we talked with her on the phone when she arrived in Vilnius. Then people began to take to the streets and protest at enterprises, but Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia refused to declare a general strike. There was aimless unrest "beyond the three seas": people didn’t stay in the center but instead moved to the outskirts of Minsk, walking tens of kilometers with flags and posters. However, they didn’t go to the Belarusian television building. The opposition could have started a broadcast if those 300,000 people had gathered at the BT building on Makayenka Street in Minsk. They did not go to the prison on Akrestsina, where at that time detained protesters were tortured. It was possible to stand indefinitely at the government house and demand the resignation of Lukashenka, but this did not happen, because everything was led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia and the very dubious figures around her.

— And so, as they say, they sat down on the benches, removing their slippers. This is the image of peaceful protest.

— Of course, including this. And in the first days, the police officers were very scared, including the riot police and GUBOPiK. There was information that they were ready to give up, but they saw a protest on Sundays, and on Mondays, everyone went to work. A lot of people were disappointed and stopped walking, because they realized that it would lead to nothing. And then they started mass arrests of everyone else. And it was not difficult for Lukashenka to disperse this protest by October. Then harsh repressions and imprisonment of people. Well, what did Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia do next abroad? Many now call it political tourism. Because no real action was taken.

Independent media are still without assistance, relatives of political prisoners are without assistance, and there is almost no assistance to refugees, despite the creation of a huge number of funds. Belarusians cannot receive visas to Europe today. It's a very complex process. The issuance of residence permits to Belarusians has tightened today.

Sanctions against Lukashenka were introduced, but not thanks to Tsikhanouskaia, but thanks to Aliaksandr Ryhoravich [Lukashenka - Ed.] personally, who first landed the plane, for which the first sanctions were introduced, then began attacks on the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia by migrants, and then he took part in the war against Ukraine.

— I would like to draw the attention of everyone who watches us. This is, in fact, a very curious fact regarding the history of Belarus in recent years. As far as I understand, correct me, Natallia, if I'm wrong, but no sanctions have been imposed on Lukashenka for the current repressions. Am I right?

— There are no economic sanctions for the repression. Only personal sanctions against specific performers have been introduced. We just talked about this during a press conference in the European Parliament 10 days ago, and I spoke directly about it, that how can we achieve the release of prisoners of conscience, what conditions can we set for Lukashenka to release these people, if he has not been punished for thousands and thousands of prisoners of conscience. Fortunately, MEPs understood this, and a resolution was adopted on the eve of this electoral farce, where they spoke about the need to strengthen economic sanctions against the Lukashenka regime.

— Why are Europe and the United States not interested in imposing tougher sanctions? Is there any background?

— First, you need to see how the sanctions that have been imposed are being implemented today. The right sanctions are in place. We have always said that if you want to put pressure on the Lukashenka regime, impose sanctions on oil products, because the lion's share of these oil products produced from Russian oil went to Ukraine and the European Union. After 2022, the market in Ukraine was lost, the market in the European Union, it would seem, should also be closed.

It was important to impose sanctions against potash and nitrogen fertilizers. Because Belarus is one of the world's largest producers of potash fertilizers. Sanctions on metal, timber, concrete — all this had to be introduced, and they were introduced today. Nevertheless, the sanctions are still being bypassed.

Of course, the trade turnover between Belarus and the European Union has halved since 2022, this is a recent statistic. But still, we know that sanctions are bypassed and oil products, potash and nitrogen fertilizers, metal, and timber continue to go to the West according to false documents, that they are allegedly produced in the countries of Central Asia, Georgia, Serbia, and Turkey.

There is also information, though I won’t name specific countries for now, that Belarusian oil products are being sent to Ukraine via the EU. That is, today it is necessary to put a strict barrier against circumventing sanctions. An effective measure would be, for example, a ban on the transit of these goods through the territory of Belarus, wherever they come from. Then it can stop smuggling. It is possible to tighten customs control at the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. But when we address the authorities of these countries with such a proposal, they say that this is impossible, we need a huge number of customs officers, we need special inspections. Okay, then close this transit.

— Well, you mentioned Bashar al-Assad, whose regime fell. Look, after all, Bashar al-Assad lost power not because someone went out to protest and there were sanctions against him, but because armed resistance against this regime arose in the country. Is armed resistance to the Lukashenka regime possible? Apologies for the unexpected question, but the strategy of peaceful protest at any cost in 2020 ultimately led to the opposition's defeat?

— For an armed protest to occur, people would need to have weapons. For such a protest to take place, there must be paramilitary organizations involved. There was nothing like that in Belarus. It’s important to realize that this was a tough totalitarian regime long before 2020.

— The cobblestone is the weapon of the proletariat. You know, the Maidan had nothing but stones torn from the pavement around Khreshchatyk.

— The Belarusian opposition has always, in general, relied on peaceful protest, on nonviolent resistance. But peaceful nonviolent protest can be different.

When I criticized Tsikhanouskaia's tactics, going to aimless actions, it does not mean that I said that it was necessary to take up arms. I said that leaving the streets was not an option. It was necessary to stay, just like it was during the Orange Revolution in 2004 and Euromaidan in 2014. Yes, then it turned into a violent confrontation, but in the beginning it was absolutely peaceful protests. It was necessary to stay on the streets, it was necessary to go to the government house, it was necessary to besiege it, to do the same with television, what I was talking about, and not to leave. It was possible to win in the situation when the security forces were already frightened, when the power shook. There is information that Lukashenka fled the country in general, that he later returned, a few days later, when he found out what plan presidential candidate Tsikhanouskaia and her team had chosen. He realized that nothing was threatening him.

— Is this when he showed up in public with an assault rifle?

— I think so.

— Remember, he demonstratively walked, in my opinion, near the government house.

— Near the Palace of Independence. Then it was clear how frightened he was, he showed absolutely hysterical behavior. It was necessary to put pressure on Lukashenka in those conditions, but a failed plan was chosen and, frankly, I am not sure that not without the influence of Belarusian and Russian special services. They were not just fools or inexperienced people who did not know how to deal with Lukashenka. “Well, people made a mistake, let's forgive them.” No, guys, the protests in Moscow in 2012 on Bolotnaya Square were doomed to fail for the same reason, following a very similar scenario. You, Yevgeny, were then a witness of these protests. After all, the same thing happened.

— I already lived and worked in Kyiv at that time. Although I still had the opportunity to come to Moscow, as they say, to visit friends, relatives, and like-minded people. I was then on Bolotnaya, or rather not on Bolotnaya, sorry, at the largest, most numerous rally on Sakharov Avenue at the end of December, and I was, frankly, amazed and confused when, instead of continuing the protests, their organizers went on vacation, and the revolution...

—... postponed until "after the holidays".

— Yes, postponed until after the holidays and, in fact, that's it. After that, the protests continued, alas, in my opinion, I may be mistaken, I was not there, but from my perspective it seemed that the protests had subsided and continued only, let's say, by inertia. The authorities instantly felt it and began to seize the initiative, but this is a separate story.

But regardless of those protests, when all this talk begins that "you need to come to the elections and vote against everyone" or "for some other candidates, but not for Lukashenka." This has been demonstrated repeatedly — no matter how much we tried to show it, even if everyone marked "none of the above," the authorities would still report that those crowds at the polls enthusiastically voted for "our beloved leader." This will be said by all the pro-government, all the press loyal to the regime. In every country. It's all a matter of shameless propaganda manipulation. Do you remember the Noon Against Putin?

— Sure.

— These were the huge crowds that allegedly stood in protest near the polling stations in Russia and in different cities abroad, where people came out in large crowds to protest against the Putin regime. They were all then shown on TV and presented as: "You are watching how many people came to vote for our beloved Vladimir Vladimirovich." As a result, this action, in my opinion, turned into free extras in favor of the current Putin regime.

— And "smart voting", for which for years the Navalny Anti-Corruption Foundation called the Russians. What was the result?

— Look, just out of respect for the memory of Alexei Navalny, I do not want to express my attitude to this very "smart voting". In addition, this requires profuse obscene vocabulary, which I try to refrain from in the public sphere. Well, tell me, what's next? There was a clever dog with Lukashenka in these "elections", I do not remember its name.

— Umka.

— Her name is Umka. So, clever Umka immediately realized that this was not an election and, excuse me, made a small need at the entrance. It realized what was really going on. We applaud Umka the Spitz. But what Lukashenka is going to do next, are they going to tolerate him in Moscow? Many people have a question. Does Putin need such ridicule, such a frankly weak and illegitimate leader of Belarus? Maybe he needs a person there who is more creative, stronger. Or is he satisfied with everything?

— I think that Putin is not focused on Lukashenka right now, so he's been left alone for the time being. Putin is busy with Trump at the moment. He is well aware that his future depends on the US president. That is why I think that Putin is now in such a nervous expectation, and what will be the US reaction to his refusal to negotiate.

It's clear to me that he will refuse to negotiate. No one will agree to the terms Russia is demanding for ending the hostilities.

— What if he refuses these conditions or is forced to refuse?

— We'll see. So far, Trump's actions cause optimism in my opinion. The key actions he has taken now is initiating efforts to limit the supply of Russian oil and discussing the possibility of reducing oil prices. The sanctions currently imposed on Russia's energy sector, as well as the sanctions on the shadow fleet that Biden initiated and Trump supported, have already forced both India and China to reduce their purchases of Russian oil. This is a crucial development.

— By the way, for those who haven't seen it or read about it yet, Reuters reported that in March, both India and China made considerably fewer requests to purchase Russian oil compared to the previous month. I believe 65 of these "grey tankers" are anchored, but the clients are not in a hurry to unload oil from them yet.

— Another significant move: Trump ordered the creation of the Iron Dome missile defense system in the United States in response to the creation of hypersonic weapons in Russia and China. After all, there was a similar Strategic Defence Initiative of Reagan, the so-called Star Wars program. That is, Trump is now drawing Putin into an arms race, which he, of course, will not survive. I believe that this will be able to finish off Russia, not to mention the fact that it can stop the war.

— Trump has yet to clarify many things. All we hear are his calls to end the war, along with threats to collapse oil prices, raise customs tariffs, and impose various other economic punishments on Russia and its economy. However, you must agree that, unfortunately or fortunately, we still haven't seen any clear, step-by-step plan from Trump to carry out this program and end the war.

Perhaps he is intentionally taking his time and not revealing all his plans just yet. But then the fork. Then, look, Natallia, there are people who are convinced that Putin wants to continue the war at any cost. Also, some people believe that the rational principle should prevail in his mind, that he sees the future consequences of the continuation of the war. What do you think? You are following the events, aren't you? You watch, read, analyze all this.

— I believe Putin likely needs a brief pause in this war, as it's clear that Russia is facing significant weaponry issues.

Experts believe that Russia will face an acute shortage of weapons by the beginning of 2026. Today, it loses a lot on the battlefields in Ukraine. The second point is, naturally, the troop numbers of the Russian army. That is, he is afraid to declare mobilization, there are fewer contract-based troops, and despite the huge payments, he still needs to involve North Koreans. In this situation, of course, he would like to suspend the war for a while.

But he will not agree to any serious conditions for ending the war. Look at the conditions Putin has — a guaranteed continuation of the war: the demilitarization of Ukraine and Ukraine's neutral status. I think that he will also demand the withdrawal of NATO troops from Europe. I think that he will demand the cancellation of the decisions of the Bucharest NATO summit, which in 2008 adopted an action plan for the membership of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO. I think there can be no talk of any peacekeepers on the demarcation lines.

— In 2008, a plan of action was not provided to Ukraine. Just a promise that it will...

— Yes, the discussion of this plan began in April 2008. It is said that this was the reason for Russia's escalation against these nations. Well, as for the NATO peacekeeping troops in Ukraine — Putin won't agree to that either.

— NATO member states can deploy their forces there without asking Putin's permission. Are the Europeans too weak to do this unilaterally? This is cooler than accepting Ukraine into NATO. Send some troops there.

— You know my point of view. Without any doubt, I’m all for it. I support the deployment of a NATO peacekeeping force in Belarus too, as the threats emerging from my country are currently exceptionally high. Putin keeps using Belarus as a base for a possible new attack on Ukraine, a base for threats to NATO member states.

Last week, I participated in a roundtable hosted by the Ukrainian Center for Countering Russian Aggression, where diplomats and members of the Verkhovna Rada expressed deep concern about the joint Zapad-2025 exercises being held on Belarusian territory with the Russian Federation.

— And how do you feel about the idea of introducing the Belarusian forces into the territory of Lukashenka's Belarus. I mean the Kalinouski Regiment.

— If this happened, of course, Belarusians would welcome such a step. Because many in the country are waiting for liberation. Whether they are Belarusian volunteers or peacekeepers from NATO. But it is difficult to say how real this scenario is today. Because the number of Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine today is about 2000-3000 troops. They serve not only in the Kalinouski Regiment, but also in various units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It is impossible to say the exact number, maybe there are more of them. Because people don't advertise that they're joining the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it's dangerous. If they have relatives in Belarus, then repressions will inevitably fall on them, so we do not know about many Belarusians who are helping Ukraine today. But in order for any military operation to take place to liberate Belarus, Ukraine's decision is necessary. And it has to be a political decision.

— Yes, in real life, of course, it is. It's striking to observe how even a despicable criminal like Prigozhin moved effortlessly through Russia towards Moscow, much like the Syrian rebels, supporters of Ahmed al-Sharaa, who made their way to Damascus, eventually being joined by Syrian army soldiers loyal to Bashar al-Assad, as soon as they sensed that the end was near.

— I can confidently say that as long as Putin continues to actively use Belarusian territory, anything is possible in this war: the collapse of the Lukashenka regime, the involvement of Belarusian volunteers, and even the deployment of NATO forces in Belarus. If the war continues, anything is possible.

— In the meantime, we’ve veered a bit off the topic we started discussing. What does Lukashenka count on? Or will he just try to maintain the status quo and do nothing?

— I think Lukashenka is in a situation like "surviving the day and making it through the night". His health is deplorable. We have discussed this more than once on our airs, it is absolutely obvious to everyone. No one knows how long he will last. Maybe not for long at all. Another thing is important. It is important what will happen after Lukashenka. Perhaps Russia will appoint a new official, and it is crucial to address the issue fundamentally. I believe that the total defeat of Russia in this war can change the situation in Belarus. To prevent the Kremlin from placing its puppets around and backing dictatorships in the post-Soviet space, it is essential to address this issue at its core. Because Russia is the source of evil.

— Could it be that Lukashenka will try to negotiate with the West, particularly the European Union, by offering to release political prisoners in return for concessions to his regime?

— He would like to do it. However, no one will engage in this bargain with Lukashenka. It is already quite clear to everyone that this person is not independent. What can be settled with Putin's puppet?

— Are there any attempts like that? Are there any signals from Minsk to Brussels?

— Yes, there are signals from Minsk to Brussels. This is accurate information. They are ready to release some political prisoners in exchange for the lifting of sanctions against Belaruskali. That's what they really need. They would also like to see the lifting of sanctions against Belavia and the lifting of the ban on aircraft flights through the territory of Belarus and from Belarus. But, firstly, it is quite clear to everyone that these sanctions have been imposed for other crimes. To allow Belavia flights in the conditions of war — no one will do this in Europe. No one will lift the sanctions on potassium, which were imposed for Lukashenka participation in the war. That is why I say that it is necessary to introduce economic sanctions for political prisoners. And then, if the dictator releases these people, it is possible to lift these sanctions.

— In order to lift the sanctions against Belarusian potassium and other sanctions imposed for complicity in the aggression against Ukraine, it is necessary to stop this complicity.

— Of course, there should be a withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus. I think Russia should also close its military bases that are located there. This is a radar station in Hantsevichy and a communication center of the Russian Navy in Vileika. Why should they stay there? Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, including the Iskander, should be removed. Lukashenka threatens to use them to launch nuclear missiles against Ukraine and Western countries. Well, this is impossible, we are well aware that this is a "union state", a regional grouping of troops, that is, the Belarusian army is controlled by Russia.

— With the "union state", you will agree, it is ridiculous sometimes. From time to time they forget about it completely. They even begin to publicly refuse the very fact of its existence.

— Certainly, democratic rule in Belarus should exit the so-called union state on the very first day. Because there is no state, and there can be no state. But at this stage, of course, Russia's influence on the Belarusian army is enormous. That's why I believe the issue needs to be addressed at its core — by dismantling the Putin regime.

— Well, Natallia, thank you very much for this conversation. Friends, I would like to remind you that my guest for now was Natallia Radzina, a key figure in the anti-Lukashenka resistance, the opposition leader, public figure, politician, and the head of the Charter'97 media outlet. I ask you, friends, be sure to subscribe to it, if you are not already subscribed. I'm also waiting for your subscriptions to my channel, likes, questions, comments, and that's all for now. Thank you, Natallia! Thanks for watching, and see you next time.

— Thank you, Yevgeny!

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