Volodymyr Fesenko: Lukashenka's Deceptive Nature Comes Out

Why did the dictator offer Zelensky to strike at the Mazyr Refinery?

In the early days of the war, the Belarusian dictator Lukashenka begged forgiveness for the attacks on Ukraine from the territory of his country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told it in a podcast with American blogger Lex Fridman.

Why did this conversation take place? Why did Lukashenka offer Zelensky to hit the Mazyr Refinery? How the Belarusian dictator demonstrated duplicity. Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies:

— The sensation was that Lukashenka offered Zelensky to strike at the Mozyr Refinery. What for?

— I didn't quite understand this episode either. Maybe Lukashenka showed in this way that it would be compensation, they say, you can answer in this way. Here it is also possible what is called misunderstanding in English, mutual misunderstanding, when Lukashenka meant one thing and Zelensky something else.

This episode is really hard to comment on. Everything Lukashenka says can hardly be sincere, especially in such a situation. It could have been a game, and how seriously he talked about it is hard to say. There could also be an element of provocation on the part of Lukashenka. He could have sincerely told Zelensky that, they say, as a retaliatory strike, since you believe that you were hit from the territory of Belarus, you can hit our territory.

In fact, this could be a reason for entering the war so that the Lukashenka regime could justify its participation in the conflict. This, too, manifests Lukashenka's cunning, duplicitous, even deceptive nature. On the one hand, he pretended to apologize to Zelensky, and on the other hand, he actually offered a provocation — to strike at the territory of Belarus, so that it was used as an excuse to justify participation in the war against Ukraine.

I think that Lukashenka hesitated in the first days. I am sure that if, for example, the storming of Kyiv, full-fledged battles in the city and so on began, Lukashenka could join the war to show his loyalty to Putin or benefit from the situation.

So this whole story, this conversation that Zelensky recalled, for me is a clear illustration of Lukashenka's duplicity and even meanness.

— Why does Lukashenka use such duplicity?

— There were indirect signs of such behaviour of Lukashenka previously, when he publicly demonstrated loyalty to Putin. This is a mandatory program because Lukashenka's Belarus is economically and politically very dependent on Russia. Therefore, he needs to express loyalty to Putin, play with him, sometimes show honor and talk about the special interests of Belarus in order to get something from Putin. Conversely, in difficult situations, Lukashenka must demonstrate loyalty, because he has no other option.

However, Lukashenka very often played a double game. I will give an example: in 2014, when Russia demonstrated a tough stance towards the post-Maidan authorities in Ukraine, Lukashenka made a demonstrative gesture — he came to the inauguration of Poroshenko.

Russia then returned its ambassador Zurabov, who knew Petro Poroshenko well, they say, even had such friendly relations. But it was all at the ambassadorial level, it was more of a probe. On the part of Lukashenka, it was a gesture that looked very unusual — to come to the inauguration of the President of Ukraine after the Maidan. This showed his special game.

Another example is his role as an active 'peacemaker' during the first and second Minsk Agreements, when he simultaneously flirted with the West. Lukashenka, being dependent on Russia, taking an anti-Western position, periodically began a secret game with the West, trying to normalize relations and relieve tension.

As our former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin likes to say, he likes to 'loop'. That's why Lukashenka periodically looped. Of course, the main vector is Russia, the second main vector is China, but it periodically began a cunning double game with the West.

Something similar happened in the relationship with Zelensky. Lukashenka has a very ambiguous attitude towards Zelensky. On the one hand, there is a clear sympathy, purely human, which, I think, arose when Zelensky was known as an actor and showman. But Lukashenka was also interested in Zelensky as a politician.

At one time, Lukashenka, of course, started from a different position, he was a deputy, he was already in politics, but still, there was such a leap through a few steps to the post of president. And for Zelensky, it is even stronger. I think this formed Lukashenka's respect for Zelensky. But in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Lukashenka, of course, is on Putin's side. No question about it.

I think that the contacts that were there then are explained by the fact that Zelensky tried to stop the war. He agreed to the negotiations, which began on the territory of Belarus. I do not think that Zelensky had any special illusions about Lukashenka, he understood his ambivalence and tried to use it.

Lukashenka, I think, in the first days of the war was in emotional dissonance, especially when Zelensky personally called him. I don't think Lukashenka gave any ultimatums. Rather, he wanted to play the role of mediator for Putin, offering his help.

Lukashenka has one style of communication with Putin and with Zelensky — a completely different one. His duplicity manifests itself in different forms.

— Why did Zelensky talk about this conversation now?

— Well, it's hard to say. The conversation with this podcaster was very emotional, I think, even overly emotional on the part of Zelensky. Emotions, lots of memories, lots of emotional evaluations. Here you need to look at quotes, analyze the context, when and how this topic arose, then you can give some interpretations.

But I think this is rather an emotional illustration of how the war began and how people, including state leaders, behaved during the conflict. For Zelensky, this slipped, perhaps even sometimes in a politically incorrect form, when he spoke about security guarantors, that the Western states, which were supposed to be guarantors of Ukraine's security, did nothing in 2014 or 2022 to ensure Ukraine's security.

He also cited Lukashenka's behaviour as an example of duplicity.

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