‘This Will Forever Remain Lukashenka’s Disgrace’

The dictator wanted Ukraine to strike the Mazyr Oil Refinery.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his New Year's address that he was “sure that the day will come when we will all say: “Long live Belarus!”

A few days later, in an interview with the famous American blogger Lex Friedman, he spoke about a conversation with Lukashenka in the first days of the war. The Ukrainian president told how the Belarusian dictator asked for forgiveness.

Why is Zelensky increasingly talking about Belarus? Charter97.org spoke about this with Maksym Pleshko, PhD in Philosophy and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:

— Ukraine has developed an understanding and approach to the Belarusian issue. As we can see, this mention of “Long live Belarus!” really pleased both Belarusians and those Ukrainians who are not indifferent to the Belarusian issue.

This is not the first time that the Ukrainian President has spoken about Belarus and noted that it should be free. And so it is in this address. Note that he is talking about Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus. We are talking about a geopolitical space called the Baltic-Black Sea Union, where Russia is either trying to expand its influence, as in Georgia, or Belarus, which is under hybrid occupation, but has every chance and every prospect to return to the European context.

The aforementioned statement is absolutely consistent with the geopolitical vision of the Baltic-Black Sea space, security, and so on.

Why did Zelensky recall the conversation with Lukashenka right now? As for me, this mention did not look like a draft. They had a long conversation with Lex Fridman, he remembered this story.

There is no deep idea here, perhaps the president simply shared his emotions, his vision and experiences on this matter, since the interview was long, it provided for the format of such a free, deep conversation.

There was communication between Zelensky and Lukashenka both before the war and at the beginning of the war. Lukashenka came, if I am not mistaken, to the Zhytomyr region.

— To the forum of regions.

— Yes, exactly. They had communication, they knew each other, this shows the personal, so to speak, experiences of the President of Ukraine, when he was stabbed in the back like this.

— Why did Lukashenka propose to strike the Mazyr Oil Refinery?

— The Mazyr Oil Refinery, which is so important for the economy of Belarus, is located in the area of about 40 kilometers from the border. This is a fairly easy target. You don’t have to cross the border, but you can even strike with artillery.

And we have been talking about this from the very beginning of the war. The very understanding of this was probably a big deterrent for Lukashenka. In addition to the fact that the Belarusian people do not want to fight with Ukraine, there is such a vulnerability of the infrastructure, it was also a deterrent for Lukashenka. He obviously explained this to Putin.

But let's not forget that he could be playing a double game. Lukashenka needed such a blow to the oil refinery so that he could mobilize, let's say, his nuclear electorate and, perhaps, the army, somehow drag Belarus into the war.

This blow could have helped Lukashenka, but it would have been useful specifically to Putin. If this had happened, the Belarusian people would have lost from the situation, Ukraine would have lost, but Putin would have won.

— Do you think that this statement by Zelensky will affect Lukashenka's relations with Putin? After all, Lukashenka is making Putin the absolute culprit of the attack.

— I think that Putin knows Lukashenka's nature quite well. Because Putin himself is the same. These are political animals who say “white” to “black”, say “black” to “white”, immediately change their minds, and so on. Let's just remember the theater with four directions, from where “an attack on Belarus was being prepared”.

This has become a famous meme that no one will forget. It will remain a disgrace for Lukashenka for centuries. But Putin himself is such a theater-goer, they are birds of a feather, he is unlikely to condemn Lukashenka for this.

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