Expert: Lukashenka Being Pushed Towards Suicide

Information is used as a tool to put pressure on the dictator.

Historian and political analyst Alexander Friedman spoke about the new difficult situation in which Lukashenka found himself in connection with a hypothetical deal with the United States.

— It is obvious that Chris Smith was in Minsk, and it was important for Lukashenka to send a delegation to the talks and talk to him himself. That is, there is interest on the part of Lukashenka. And this is logical. Alexander Friedman comments at the DW talks between Minsk and Washington.

In the current situation, Lukashenka fears that the war in Ukraine will end, who knows what will be concluded there, and he will be left alone with the Russian Federation, having lost importance for it, and will be pressed much harder.

Therefore, according to the analyst, the deal with the United States could become a new opportunity for Lukashenka to maneuver. Still... there is one "but".

— Lukashenka would be happy to do it, but another question is how ready he is for some compromises, — explains Alexander Friedman. — These are absolutely correct demands that lead to the democratization of Belarus, the release of political prisoners, but for Lukashenka this is political suicide. Since 2020, it has been based on repression.

If Lukashenka begins to fulfill these requirements, even for the lifting of sanctions or their easing, if he simply begins some kind of liberalization, this will mean sawing the bitch on which he climbed. And it seems to me that Lukashenko will not commit political suicide after all that he has gone through (especially in 2020).

On the other hand, the analyst notes, there is also huge skepticism about the Trump administration and its willingness to really push for liberalization in Belarus and the release of political prisoners.

— Donald Trump did not show himself as a fighter for freedom and democracy. I am afraid that the fate of Belarusian political prisoners is absolutely indifferent to him. He is playing his geopolitical games, which are not worth anything yet," explains Alexander Friedman.

The analyst also made his guess as to why, despite the Belarusian side's silence, the information about the deal got into the Western press.

— It seems to me that this indicates that the drain was purposeful. One of the reasons is to put a little pressure on Lukashenka, because the way it is described is not very profitable for him, not very pleasant, believes Alexander Friedman. — Therefore, the Belarusian state propaganda does not have much to comment on.

This was one side of the coin. On the other hand, public steps are very important for Trump to demonstrate his activity. As for Belarusian political prisoners, if Washington decides that with the help of this topic it will be possible to draw attention to themselves, improve their image, attract attention to themselves, they can press in this direction.

The analyst believes that at the moment the information is used as an instrument of pressure on Lukashenka.

— Maybe intending to show his patrons — namely Russia and China, that, look, there are some consultations, some negotiations and most importantly — Lukashenka is showing interest. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are well aware of who they are dealing with. They understand that political loyalty is not the story of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

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