‘Lukashenka's Entourage Could Start Stealing From The Chinese’

What are the diplomatic failures of the Belarusian regime related to?

The so-called “elections” were held in Belarus. No miracle happened for the regime: democratic countries refuse to recognize Lukashenka.

Is the West closed to him forever? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko:

— There is such an expression: “never say never or always”. Absolute categories should be avoided, but not in the case of Lukashenka, given his age, health condition and the factor of military-political confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, which will not disappear if the war ends.

The hostility between Ukraine and Russia will remain. It will not be possible to return to the previous relations. This will also affect Belarus. In 2014-2015, Lukashenka maneuvered, remained formally neutral (he went to Poroshenko's inauguration, then there were the “Minsk agreements”), which, by the way, helped him at least partially restore relations with the West.

This will not happen now. Lukashenka will remain in the Russian camp. Diplomatic relations will perhaps be restored a little, there will be some civil contacts through Belarus. Although, I think that even they will be very limited, also because the Belarusian special services can arrest any Ukrainian citizen at any time. And the Russian special services will also operate there, so there will be a wall of hostility, a wall of alienation towards Belarus. Including from the West.

I will note that if in the West some contacts with Putin are still allowed for negotiations on ending the war, and there are politicians like Orbán and Fico, then there is almost a consensus regarding Lukashenka. He is persona non grata and in the medium term (the next 5 years, I won't venture to guess further) I don't see any prerequisites for restoring relations between Lukashenka's regime and the West.

If Lukashenka leaves (physically or politically), there will be some new political regime, if there are signs of at least relative liberalization, then I think that relations with the West may be activated.

Lukashenka has been tabooed, he is perceived as an accomplice to the war, a separate claim against him is the dictatorial regime, repressions against the opposition.

— It is noteworthy that before the “elections” Lukashenka wanted to visit China — the trip did not take place. Now the representatives of the regime are simply silent about it. Why?

— It is hard to tell. I do not think that China will abandon its interests in Belarus, because serious investments have been made. For China, Belarus was a springboard for active work with Europe, as, by the way, was Ukraine.

Now this motive has definitely disappeared. What springboard for working with Europe if sanctions are in place? Chinese interests inside Belarus will remain, perhaps Beijing will work more through Belarus on the Russian market.

Maybe the trip did not take place because some claims arose? We don’t know. Perhaps someone from Lukashenka’s entourage or his relatives decided, excuse me, to “play the rat” and steal from the Chinese.

If this happened, the Chinese clearly did not like it. This could have led to a cooling off, signals could have been sent to Lukashenka and others, like, guys, we don’t like what is happening with respect to Chinese business in Belarus. I emphasize that I am only assuming, I don’t know how it really is.

China will now watch how the war between Russia and Ukraine develops. This is important for Beijing now. It does not want the war to expand.

I think China is not thrilled (although it was agreed with them) by Lukashenka's flirting with nuclear weapons and Oreshnik on the territory of Belarus. After all, this is an even greater increase in Belarus's dependence on Moscow, not Beijing. Beijing never wants to share with anyone. It is used to commanding alone, and not through someone or sharing influence with someone. Beijing does not really like Putin's increasing influence on the current situation in Belarus, including through the deployment of strategic weapons on its territory. This could also be the reason for the cooling between Beijing and Minsk. Now China has adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

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