‘There Are Countries Interested In Replacing Lukashenka’

Belarusians have many allies.

The US and Ukraine agreed on a proposal for a 30-day truce at talks in Saudi Arabia. It will be presented to Russia in the near future. How did Ukraine react to the results of the talks? Why did Russian propaganda roll out Putin in military uniform? Why was Lukashenka summoned to Moscow? Charter97.org talked about this and more with Maksym Pleshko, PhD in Philosophy and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:

— Ukraine has, to some extent, turned the international diplomatic agenda upside down. If earlier the US put pressure on Zelensky and Ukraine, now the situation has changed, the ball has been passed to the Russian half of the field. President Zelensky, the Americans, the Secretary of State spoke about this, even Trump noted that now everything depends on the Russians.

For Ukraine, the events that have taken place over the past two weeks have been very difficult, both politically and morally, and for the citizens of Ukraine it has not been easy. We have taken a position that we are ready to cease fire, to stop the war. Now let the Americans try to talk to Putin about this.

“We need to be strong in this world, like sharks”

The situation has changed, but for Ukrainians, I will say this, the first coming of age took place in 2014, and then in 2022 the myth of the “big brother” that was imposed on us for 300 years, both to you, Belarusians, and to us, was finally dispelled.

You and I, young nations, are looking for some kind of symbolic “father” or “big brother”, as it can be called in psychoanalysis. And we have found one in the West, in Europe and in the USA.

And gradually, of course, disappointment and insight came to us that there are no brothers there, everyone has their own interests, everyone plays for themselves. The last conflict that took place in the Oval Office, the change in rhetoric, when we realized that they were simply trying to exchange us for their global interests, caused a psycho-emotional crisis, the collapse of the image of the “big brother” that we found in the West.

That is why Ukrainian society has come of age. We realized — both the expert community and ordinary people — it reached everyone in plain text: we are on our own, we are adults, and there is no one to rely on, no one to count on. We need to be strong in this world, like sharks.

— As you noted, there was no normal response from the Kremlin, but at the same time, Russian propaganda rolled out Putin in a military uniform yesterday. Can this be perceived as a kind of response to the proposal for a truce?

— It is obvious that the reaction of Russian propaganda was confusing. They were in confusion for 24 hours. An hour after the G20 statements, after Zelensky and Trump's words, they showed the weather forecast, reports from the front lines, but said nothing about the decisions made. That is, they were at a loss. Then Zakharova, the press secretary of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said something like: “Don't expect news from us from abroad, all the news will be from Russia, we will make decisions ourselves.”

In fact, this can be perceived as an attempt to “puff out their cheeks”, to pretend to have a strong position, but there is nothing strong in this. This is an attempt to save face, to show how cool they are, although in fact nothing specific was said. And now this is a serious challenge for them.

“An angry Trump has many opportunities to bring down Russia in a few months”

On the one hand, they want to press, attack and beat, and on the other — there is Trump, who wants to end the war. For them, going into confrontation with Trump means losing those curtsies and good signs that he gave them - not only publicly, but also behind the scenes. Obviously, negotiations are underway, and they have something to talk about.

And now Trump can get angry. And an angry Trump, in fact, has many opportunities to bring down Russia in the next few months. These are oil prices, strengthening the sanctions regime, providing Ukraine with long-range weapons. And, in principle, Russia can collapse in a few months. Let me remind you that six months ago, the head of Ukrainian intelligence Budanov said that the Russian economy is in such a state that it is critically important for them to end the war in 2025.

“China is changing its position, this has never happened before”

Here it is worth noting China’s reaction to all this. Chinese journalists are already filming stories from the Ukrainian side of the front line — about how Ukrainian forces are striking at Russian territory. This has never happened before, the Chinese only filmed from the Russian side, and now Ukraine has appeared in the focus.

Apparently, China has noticed the Russian-American turn. It is no secret that Trump's goal is to tear Russia away from China. That is why China is now changing its position. As they say in Odesa, “we'll see”. The situation is unfolding very interestingly.

— Today, Lukashenka is flying to Putin in Moscow. It is clear that they will discuss these negotiations. What can we expect from this meeting? Can Putin use it, as you said, to roll out some nonsense or for escalation?

— Of course, he can. You and I can only make prophecies “on the tea leaves” now. Let's be objective: Putin and Lukashenka have created the so-called “union state”, they are connected. Their survival depends on each other.

Belarus is a springboard, it threatens not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic countries. We understand perfectly well that the next war will probably be against the Baltic countries. It is obvious that Putin is calculating such scenarios, in this regard Belarus is a unique springboard.

“Belarus has always been in the European civilizational space”

It is important for the West, the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine that the Russian presence in Belarus is reduced. Even under the current puppet regime of Lukashenka, if it holds on in the coming years, it is important for us that Belarus retains at least some level of independence.

Perhaps, the geopolitical status of Belarus will be touched upon at the negotiations, because this is an important issue of security in the Baltic-Black Sea area — for the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine. For us, Ukrainians, the Belarusian issue is issue number two after Russian aggression.

We need a free, democratic Belarus, which will be an ally of Ukraine. This is a natural state for Belarus, since it has always been in the European, Baltic-Black Sea civilizational space. Apart from the times of the Russian Empire and earlier under the Horde, millennia before that, this has always been a European context. Therefore, I will emphasize once again, a free, independent, democratic Belarus is a national interest for Ukraine.

— We see that European countries have now become more consolidated. Can they develop some kind of common and tough position on the issue of Lukashenka's regime and, in general, will the factor of a strong Europe influence Belarus?

— Yes, we really see that Europe's position is beginning to form, meetings of chiefs of headquarters of European states are taking place without the participation of the United States.

There could be no other situation when America declared: “That's it, we are leaving you.”

“The “first wave” countries are most interested in changing or removing the Lukashenka regime”

In this context, it is worth paying attention to the so-called Baltic-Black Sea area, Intermarium — these are the countries from the Arctic to the Black Sea: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Baltic countries, Poland, Ukraine, Romania. These are the countries of the “first wave” that are under direct threat from Russia.

And, of course, Belarus plays a key role here: through it, Russia penetrates this space. The countries of this “first wave”, or, let's say, the first echelon, located next to Russia, are most interested in changing or removing Lukashenka's regime, to wrest Belarus from Russia's influence. Their interest in this is obvious.

At the same time, everyone understands how difficult this is without the active participation of the Belarusian people. It is necessary to clearly understand: you can assist, you can help, support volunteers, provide information support to the Belarusian opposition, but without a clear readiness of the majority of Belarusians inside the country — even if now they are forced to remain silent, to speak only in their kitchens — nothing will work. There must be a firm, clear readiness.

Here I would like to emphasize one more point. No matter how trivial it may sound, the fate of Belarusians is in the hands of Belarusians themselves. Both those who are abroad and those who are inside the country. Everyone can help you and will help you, including Ukraine, but this is, first of all, your job.

The Belarusian opposition, leaders and the public should continue to work with these first-wave countries: communicate with them, knock on their doors, emphasize the geopolitical importance of Belarus, and ensure that the Belarusian issue does not disappear from the agenda. I believe that this is very important.

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