Forbes: Ukraine’s Strikes On Russian Refineries Could Deal Greater Damage
2- 26.03.2025, 9:38
- 10,206
Experts Offer Valuable Advice to Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
In August 2024, workers in Russia’s Oryol region laid the foundation for a new factory to produce kamikaze drones. Four months later, the plant was ready to begin manufacturing "Shaheds."
However, on December 26, 2024, a Ukrainian Su-24 struck the factory with two Storm Shadow missiles. As a result, the enemy lost a repair workshop for kamikaze drones, a warehouse, and technical facilities, Forbes reports.
A follow-up strike on January 26 destroyed at least 200 kamikaze drones at the plant. However, this was only a minor setback since Russian factories produce up to 1,000 "Shaheds" per month.
These strikes may have provided some relief to civilians suffering from bombardments. However, in a broader sense, "air-launched cruise missiles have often not aligned well with battlefield operations," explained Michael Kofman, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
For Ukraine’s Air Force, it is not particularly useful to destroy, for example, the entire stockpile of heavy mortar shells of the Russian field army if minefields surround a nearby Ukrainian corps or lacks the necessary manpower to launch an offensive and exploit Russia’s temporary ammunition shortage.
Analysts from the Frontelligence Insight group reported that between September 2024 and February 2025, Ukrainian strikes had only a limited impact on the Russian military in 50% of cases.
Drones and missiles may have damaged several Russian factories and warehouses, sparking a few alarming fires. But in the end, firefighters extinguished the flames, and workers repaired the damage. This is why Ukraine has recently shifted its focus to Russian oil infrastructure—specifically, oil refineries, which serve as the "beating chemical heart" of Russia’s economy and, by extension, its military efforts.
These facilities are significantly harder and more expensive to restore, according to analysts from Frontelligence Insight. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have cost the Kremlin between $658 million and $863 million. However, in 2024, Russia still earned $189 billion from oil sales.
So far, the attacks on oil facilities have been too infrequent and insufficiently destructive to cause significant economic harm.
Economist Vladimir Milov stated that to maximize the impact of strikes on Russian oil refineries, Ukraine should target unique cracking units at modern Russian refineries.
Cracking units, which break down crude oil into useful products, are delicate and complex, and Russia’s industry struggles to replace them under the current sanctions regime. Frequent and precise strikes could prevent repairs, Milov said. Ultimately, this would help Ukraine end the war on terms favorable to Kyiv.
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