Lukashenka's Failed Idea

Why does the dictator need a second NPP?

During negotiations with Putin, Lukashenka asked Rosatom to build another NPP in Belarus.

Since 2023, Lukashenka has repeatedly stated that the second station could appear in the Mahiliou region on the border with the Russian Federation, “to provide electricity to the Bryansk region and new regions of the Russian Federation” (we are talking about the occupied Ukrainian territory). In addition, the authorities expect to develop cryptocurrency mining in Belarus, which is associated with high electricity consumption, Deutsche Welle reports.

To build the NPP in Astravets, Belarus took a loan from Russia in the amount of $ 10 billion. According to official data, the total amount of funds used was $ 5.36 billion. The construction costs are covered by the loan by 90%, another 10% was paid from the budget — this is 536 million. In addition, the operation of the power plant required the creation of additional infrastructure — peak-reserve sources in case of an emergency shutdown ($ 515 million), electric boilers in case of energy overproduction ($ 190 million), power lines and substations ($ 237.3 million). As a result, the cost of the NPP reaches almost 7 billion dollars, and this does not include the cost of building a road and railway to the station.

“Lukashenka has not yet paid for the first NPP, but he is already talking about the second,” recalls nuclear physicist Andrei Azharouski. “From an economic point of view, if you do not repay the loan, it seems that everything is fine. But there is no such thing as a free lunch. We know that the Russian regime uses energy facilities as a weapon of pressure. And someday this bill will be presented.”

Academic Director of the Beroc Research Center Leu Lvouski notes that Lukashenka comes up with another scheme for getting money for almost every visit to Moscow that Putin should like. “For example, a loan for the construction of a second nuclear power plant, which Belarus does not really need — we do not use the first one at full capacity. But you can open a credit line for the NPP.”

Electricity in Belarus has not become cheaper

The authorities promised that with the commissioning of the NPP, electricity in Belarus would become cheaper, but this did not happen. “On the contrary, tariffs have increased,” Azharouski clarifies. “The capacity of the first station has already turned out to be excessive, and the government is taking measures to increase electricity consumption: they are sending plans to enterprises on what to do to consume more energy, and not, on the contrary, save. This is nonsense.”

The appearance of the NPP, according to the expert, has led not only to new debts to Russia, an increase in tariffs, but also to technological dependence. “In addition, it created the usual problems for nuclear power plants — it is not entirely clear what will happen to the radioactive waste, where exactly the repository will be built. And most importantly — what to do in the event of an accident — these questions remain unanswered.”

In March 2025, it became known that Belarus plans to increase purchases of Russian gas, despite the promises of officials to reduce gas use after the launch of the nuclear power plant.

Russia does not need electricity from Belarus

As for the export of electricity to Russia, there are questions here too. Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Pavel Snikkars noted that Moscow treats the initiative “with restraint and caution”. According to the official, Russia does not intend to stop its nuclear power plants in the central part of the country in order to consume electricity from the Belarusian nuclear power plant. Moreover, Russian electricity is cheaper.

Andrei Azharouski emphasizes that politically such a project can be implemented, but from an economic point of view it is meaningless. “It will only be possible to export electricity to Russia to the energy system of the nearby Smolensk region, and there is a nuclear power plant there. And they are not going to close it. This and other possible routes pass through energy-surplus regions of the Russian Federation.”

At the same time, the expert does not rule out that Rosatom may lobby for the construction of a second NPP in Belarus. “Rosatom has its own interests — the development of budget funds, they take on any projects,” the interlocutor says.

Environmental risks of the new NPP

According to the expert, the new NPP, in addition to economic ones, also carries environmental risks. After the launch of the Belarusian NPP, residents of adjacent territories began to receive a much higher dose of radiation, says Azjarouski, citing data from the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

“In some places, it has increased by 84% in two years. This means that people received additional radiation. We need to remember such a concept as a collective dose — residents of all populated areas around receive a small additional radiation. And for some of them, this will be the trigger for the development of serious diseases, including cancer,” the expert emphasized.

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