Don't Hide Your Money

Lukashenka is preparing an expropriation.

In the recent history of the Belarusian economy, periods of tightening the screws have regularly been replaced by a very, very conditional thaw. When entrepreneurs from lousy fleas for a short time turned into almost respected members of Belarusian society. And everything seemed to be heading towards the fact that this time it would be the same. But it seems that the thaw is canceled. No one is going to let anyone go anywhere, but instead they are going to rob. Because the screws have not been tightened all the way yet, and they want money.

Illusions and reality

Numerous promises by officials to cancel price regulation and just common sense spoke in favor of conditional liberalization. Because more than two years of price regulation have already led the finances of Belarusian companies to a place from which not everyone returns.

And Belarusian business is a goose that lays, maybe not golden, but still eggs. Private capital accounts for half of the Belarusian GDP. And this is its better half. Because it was the ability of businesses to quickly adapt to new conditions that saved the Belarusian economy after the introduction of Western sanctions.

So common sense suggested that if Belarusian companies were given a little more freedom, everyone would benefit from it. And most of all — Belarusian stability. It's not that the government was proposing some rampant price liberalism. The idea was to simply return everything to how it was before total price control, with a limited list of socially significant goods.

At the same time, the government proposed to slightly liberalize the rules of control activities. To check a little less, and not to imprison every time. And this was all the proposals for liberalizing the Belarusian economy. To harass businesses with fair prices and slightly fewer inspections than before.

But even this turned out to be too much. Lukashenka did not find the mental strength in himself to approve the draft decree on liberalization of control activities. And he did not even listen to any nonsense about the balance of supply and demand. He immediately took the bull by the horns. I asked the head of the State Control Committee: “How many scoundrels have you put in jail?”

Don't hide your money

Moreover, scoundrels are not those who have violated something. But those who earn more than Lukashenka’s idea of social justice.

“A certain founder who doesn't even work as a store director. They were getting $56,000 a month. Now they're getting $150,000 a month. I gave them all a warning, telling them that it's not right to do that,” Lukashenka said.

Lukashenka didn't specify why it's not right to earn a lot, and why those who do earn money should be jailed. What for? Everyone understands it anyway. Along with the idea of somehow banning the transfer of money abroad, the state is sending a very obvious signal: the state needs your money more.

Well, really, what good does your money do you? You'll spend it on all sorts of stupid things anyway. And the state will spend it on a second nuclear power plant, a giant refrigerator plant, which is so necessary for the national economy, or will simply cut it up for modernization of wood processing.

True, you still have to reach for money abroad. And Belarusian banks are right next door. And the banks don’t have much money, but they still have enough to ensure short-term prosperity. The new leadership of the National Bank promised to arrange a total mobilization of the banks. Raman Halouchanka, who came from the State Military Industrial Committee, has a lot of experience in mobilizations.

Because Lukashenka’s election promise about hard times is slowly starting to come true. Belarusian goods are no longer as welcome in Russia as before, and the Russian authorities don’t want to give money for Belarusian prosperity.

And, of course, if you are going to engage in expropriations, then there should be no liberalism in the control activities. You can’t expropriate much with liberalism. It should be the other way around. It is necessary to control more often in order to have more reasons for expropriations.

Because mobilization with expropriations is Lukashenka's favorite answer to any difficulties. Well, because he is no longer at the age to come up with something new.

Andrei Branisheuski, planbmedia.io

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