Petro Oleshchuk: The Echoes of This Policy Will Also Affect Belarus

What to Expect from Trump’s Tariff War?

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed unprecedented tariffs on nearly every country in the world. The duties, introduced by the White House on April 2, range from 10% to 49%.

What can be expected from this policy? How will it affect the U.S.? Charter97.org discussed these questions with Ukrainian political analyst and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Petro Oleshchuk:

— The U.S. is talking about changing its tariff policy, which, according to Trump’s administration, is a response to its negative trade balance.

Ideologically, Trump’s team presents it as a way to restore fairness: they claim that foreign countries can sell their goods in the U.S. at low tariffs, harming the domestic economy. This, they argue, leads to American industries moving abroad, job losses, and reduced national income due to what Trump calls an unfair trade policy.

By imposing these tariffs—calculated through some mysterious methodology—they claim to be restoring justice. According to Trump, this will rapidly reduce the national debt and allow for lower taxes. This is the populist appeal behind it all.

I won’t make predictions about the economic consequences. While some foresee another "Great Depression," ultimately, this is another step toward dismantling what we recently called the Western world. These tariffs do not just target U.S. rivals like China but also affect the EU and other traditional allies. In this context, the idea of Western unity becomes obsolete.

NATO is already a rather fragile structure, and U.S. commitments to its allies are no longer as solid. Now, they have essentially launched a trade war against the entire world.

The U.S. is not only stepping away from its leadership role in the West but is actively challenging the Western world itself.

— Will Europe respond?

— I believe it will. Most likely, there will be a symmetrical response, although we know that some EU countries support Trump. Still, a response will come, even if not immediately. Initially, attempts will be made to resolve these issues through negotiations.

— Are tariffs becoming a powerful political weapon? Could this affect Lukashenko in the future?

— Belarus was not directly hit by these tariffs—just like North Korea, Cuba, and Russia. The U.S. explains this by stating that it has minimal trade with these countries, making tariffs unnecessary.

I don’t think the U.S. will view Belarus as an independent player. Washington’s policy toward Belarus will, unfortunately, depend on its approach to Russia.

Trump has threatened to reconsider his stance on Russia if Moscow does not show a willingness to end the war. I believe that any shifts in U.S. policy toward Russia will inevitably impact Belarus as well.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com